A decade after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but very few politicians or advocates want to engage with the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that seek impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions range over national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent official who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has got something to learn from the alternative positions."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
