The Way This Unusual Season Broke the Typical NFL Coach of the Year Mold.

Ordinarily, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple script. It commonly functions as a type of apology. Our apologies we underestimated your franchise in our pre-campaign projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who oversaw the most dramatic turnaround receives the prize. In reality, it sparks an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring excellent coaching or merely the most shocking shock.

But this year's race is fundamentally unique. The list of nominees is exceptionally deep. It has been the season of turnarounds. The league has been messy, with recent conference winners fading and recent underperformers improving together. During an ordinary year, a coach guiding the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in such a turbulent and thrilling year, he's facing five other outstanding coaches.

Here is how the projected vote could be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters love quarterbacks. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you transform a quarterback, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. In the right system, the QB has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his rare ability. Since Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's consistent excellence. Under Johnson, Williams has become more decisive, less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme instead of going rogue. It is an attack constructed solely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action and a creative passing attack that frees wide-open receivers everywhere. The QB has thrived. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been able to create magic from broken plays.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive blueprint. Almost each decision – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, turning the QB into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the building with the level of pressure he did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive genius but the type of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a normal year, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. Yet this isn't a typical campaign!

The area where Johnson's candidacy runs slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears currently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are famously fickle. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be two victories worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is established for long-term success. However he comes up just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has masterminded a dramatic resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the league in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has excelled at the intangibles stuff, which was not a given following his initial public appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed their staff with the perfect coaching mix of new ideas and experience, Coen trusted newbies. Starting with the head coach himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but frequently fails in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a new job on the fly. Yet he has managed to bring the entire group and everything together.

Following an early strong start, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year collapse had the Jags stumbling again. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. He didn't. Rather, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking consistent ones. The coach refocused the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year case has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a new quarterback and partnering him with an innovative play-caller might have ended the campaign in October. Instead, it shaped it. By the mid point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has regressed since that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the schedule, putting him only a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still